The government took an 85 billion euro IMF/EU rescue package to bail out the country’s banks, felled by a reckless decade-long building boom, and extended a blanket guarantee to 440 billion euros of the banks’ liabilities, including senior bonds.
As a result, Ireland’s total debt soared from 44 percent of GDP in 2008 to 106 percent last year, according to the International Monetary Fund.
The overriding reason why Dublin cannot bow to public calls to “burn the bond holders”, even if it wanted to, is simple: the European Central Bank would not permit it. The ECB worries that imposing losses on senior bond holders in one country would instantly spread contagion throughout the 17-member euro zone.
The total cost of recapitalising Ireland’s banks so far is estimated at 86 billion euros, or 52 percent of GDP.
For McCarthy, the University College Dublin economist, making governments pay for disastrous private-sector lending decisions is not just iniquitous. By refusing to countenance losses for senior bond holders, the ECB is destroying market discipline, he argued.
“We have built a moral hazard machine and it needs to be stopped,” McCarthy said. “There is no market discipline if you continue to give 100 cents on the dollar to people who bought bonds in banks that are closed in the Irish case.”
Having governments assume banks’ obligations to their creditors also risks doing permanent damage to the sovereign bond market because buyers will stay on strike if they cannot quantify states’ contingent liabilities, he said.
“Clearly, the ECB thinks that bank debt is more important that sovereign debt. But there comes a point where these things just have to be faced. A sovereign insolvency in Spain, or in Italy for that matter, runs the risk of a very big financial catastrophe in Europe,” McCarthy said.
Although Spanish property experts point to an array of factors that make it unlikely that prices will fall by more than another 15 percent, the IMF has said “greater reliance on public funding may be needed”, while Moody’s Investors Service sees a risk that the banks could still become a burden for the state.
In a note published on Friday, economists at Barclays Capital estimated future expected losses for the Spanish banking system of 198 billion euros.
Banks had made 110 billion euros of provisions as of the end of 2011, leaving 88 billion euros of losses to be cover, BarCap calculated.
